There's nothing quite as disheartening as living in the Boston area (or New York or the Bay Area for the matter). In 1977, my parents bought their current house for $40,000, albeit in a very nice town. The identical house next door, without the addition and deck my parents put on, sold last year for "just under $1mil". You've got to be kidding me- inflation doesn't work like that in a normal curve!
If you look at housing inflation over the past few years, its been ungodly. An M coupe couldn't catch up with it. Its obvious that it can't continue at that rate, but I'm starting to get the nagging feeling that we're not in for just a plateau, but for a crash. Why, you ask? The prices in many regions have been artificially sustained by banks and real estate agents over the past few years through lower interest rate. Housing prices shot up as interest rates fell because people fat off the late 90's tech boom looked for new places to invest their money and ride out the storm. This created an artificial demand, which, in turn, created an artificial inflation. Now that interest rates are going back up, people like to believe the housing market will stay flat, but that's simply not true. Sales have slowed heavily over the past several quarters as interest rates went up, and the anticipated market turnaround was delayed. People haven't been buying for a while, but rather investing in renovations and expansions of their current homes, which is right now far far less than buying a new one. It hasn't stopped RE investors from building a glut of new homes, but many of those were in the plans for the past three years when the market got hot, and are staying on the market unsold right now.
The real estate market shot itself in the foot by outgrowing demand. Sound familiar? Tech did the same not five years ago. How quickly we forget, but greed is greed. Still houses don't get swallowed up and dissapear like .coms, so its still a good investment for 10-20 years, but less than that, I think investors will find their return frightening.