dear john kerry

Wallie05 · Nov 4, 2004

Bryan330i said:

The last thing you should have been critiquing about my post was my knowledge; you do not know what I do for living, and you know as much about my professional background as you do about my academic one.

Republicans have a much stronger influence and interest in the financial markets than democrats could ever hope for. Your "reasons" are far from obvious. Look at the Dow's performance over the past two days: the markets dipped on the Tuesday, after early exit polls suggested a Kerry victory. Yesterday, as it became clear Bush would win, the market rallied. Furthermore, I'm not even that interested/active in the equity markets. Debt markets are my forte--the more debt there is (i.e. written to pay off the deficit), the more that debt, in the form of t-note, bills, and munis (local govn't take loans, too), the more that debt trades hands, which is good for me.

I have a trove of economic textbooks to quote from, for obvious reasons. It's much easier to tell someone that they need to learn about x,y,z, than to indicate that you actually know anything about them yourself. You are right on one thing: I am not a strategist; I'm not a quant, I don't have a PhD in math, and that is not my job. I'd love to quote from Mr. Gerber's text, but I'm afraid of two things: 1)You wouldn't understand it (namely current account deficit, as opposed to you tell me), and 2) it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference. Instead of hinting at your vast knowledge you would love people to think you have by saying that I have none, please elaborate on the issues which you would like to debate.

Money Rates???? What kind: interest, exchange, or money market(?) Your vagueness indicates your misunderstanding; you have no clue what your babbling about. Arbitrage is a big deal for my industry, and currency trading is a risky way to get rich.

Finally, you want to talk about real money? What makes your money so much more "real" than mine? How much could you have amassed? Shouldn't you be on fourth 7 series by now, Mr. Successful? I'll be looking for a new auto soon, and I'll be paying cash. But I'm sure you know EXACTLY how much I have to spend, and you know EXACTLY what make/model and color I will choose. You're the economist, I'm sure you can come up with some sort of PPA model. I'd love to see it....

Money rates?? Economics class??? [hah]

aNoodle · Nov 4, 2004

Uggggghhhh.... [bash]

(Take your economics to washington...they're probably looking for some new congressional aides.)

[boxface]

The election is over....can we please move on?

Wallie05 · Nov 4, 2004

Oh c'mon aNoodle. If Kerry and the Dems won, you guys be hooting and hollering all up and down this form. To the victor go the spoils....er, bragging rights. [cheers]

Bryan330i · Nov 4, 2004

"Willie05" my comments were intended to be helpful. And this is not directed at you but simple thoughts indicate simple minds and simple people.

When we throw around propaganda that is not substituted with any theory it's worthless. Substituted opinions are a different story.

Factually, the financial power people on Wall Street went for Kerry 6 to 1. This is beyond dispute. Nor is the fact that debt in nonpartisan.

Show your knowledge, it's get you a lot further in life.

Bryan330i · Nov 4, 2004

aNoodle said:

My name is Bryan and I have a problem....... [rolleyes]

[fake] I’m just too addicted to this stuff.

A few of you know that I teach some classes here and there and not for the $50.00/hour I get (could get more but I refuse to be associated with fake, diploma-mill places like University of Phoenix). Anyway, $50.00/hour here and there is hardly worth starting my car to drive there but I do it because I love this stiff and like to get people thinking. I also compile supporting information for a couple of publications for which I do not receive a dime. I guess you could say it’s in my blood.

But you are correct; it’s time to move on. I barely spend any time at work and don’t remember the last time I got there before 10 or stayed past 2pm. It’s like I just stop by and make sure everyone is happy and making money. But it’s time to get back to life.

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

Bryan330i said:

I don't see why everyone gets so hyped up about others being so into politics. I'm into politics becuase I find it very interesting, and I hate seeing my country going in the wrong direction. Being into politics is another way of being more educated. The problem is, the people who don't know about the system, the way the system works, or how one part effects other parts of the system - they are the ones who are blindsighted to the real issues.

Most people just dont CARE about those 'issues', which to us makes them look arrogant - but, they only see it that way. No matter how many times you prove them wrong on something - politics, cars, etc., they still think things their way. It's just the way most people are.

I've been raised to be as open minded as possible about life. Unfortunately, most others haven't.

Wallie05 · Nov 4, 2004

Bryan330i said:

Wrong again, Professor.

From the LA Times--no fans of Bush-- October 31, 2004 edition:

"But if Wall Street is overwhelmingly afraid of Kerry, the market's direction after Monday was puzzling."

"Kerry has made enemies on Wall Street by promising to raise taxes on the highest-income earners. Yet President Clinton raised tax rates, and then presided over a major economic boom and a rocketing stock market. Big-money investors haven't forgotten that era. It made them massive fortunes.

History aside, there is another big reason why many investors would be unlikely to sour on stocks in the near term because of a Kerry victory: As president, the Democrat would face virtual gridlock in terms of major policy initiatives, assuming the Republicans retain control of Congress.

"Every survey of professional money managers shows that they favor Bush over Kerry. That has raised concerns about what might happen to the markets if Kerry was to win Tuesday."

"Many analysts have suggested that healthcare, defense, tobacco and energy stocks could take a sharp hit if Kerry was elected, because he is considered to be unfriendly to those industries in various ways."

"If Kerry was to win and oil to continue sliding, which would matter more to Bush's disappointed Wall Street supporters in the short-term?"

"Long-term bonds, by contrast, have generated bigger total returns under Republicans than under Democrats. That suggests that interest rates have been more likely to decline under Republicans, because falling rates boost the value of older bonds."

"There are only two possible outcomes for this election," said David Kelly, economist at Putnam Investments in Boston. "Either George Bush gets to run the Republican government of the United States, or John Kerry gets to run the Republican government of the United States."

Generally disdainful of government, Wall Street has never complained about gridlock — at least when Democrats have been in the White House."

Gerber's quote to follow--I have his book at home. Also, where are you getting your 6 to 1 ratio for Kerry? Should be the reverse, I'll see if I can find how much the top i-banks donated to each campaign--it was overwhelmingly in Bush's favor.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-petruno31oct31,1,6198368.column

Still laughing about the money rates.... [clap]

That's why you teach at Phoenix instead of Wharton....

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

Wallie05 said:

I could be wrong, but when he said "(could get more but I refuse to be associated with fake, diploma-mill places like University of Phoenix)" , I took that as him NOT working there. But, maybe I misinterpreted it. What would I know, I supported Kerry. I'm misinformed and can't read.

Anyways, what you posted isn't saying they are against kerry - it's saying that the problem is the republicans would probably have remained in majority control of congress - keeping Kerry from boosting the economy like Clinton did during his time in office. Everything you posted is opinion anyways. Show me facts.

Bryan also stated that Wall street supported kerry 6 to 1.

I thought this was interesting; http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/10092408.htm?1c

A second term for the Republican president also makes it likely that drugmakers can head off government-mandated price controls for now. The defense industry also looks like a winner. More regulatory victories may be in store for the regional Bells, and look for a new push for oil drilling in the Alaska wilderness.

So, Drugs will be even HARDER to afford for those without health care (I thought bush was going to fix this problem?), the defense industry being stronger - well, as a pro-war president, of course it will be. And of course, we're just going to destroy our protected land in Alaska.

No worries. Thank god I'm under daddy's health care plan [;)]

Wallie05 · Nov 4, 2004

EPJ3, take a look at these campain donations:

Bush clearly beats Kerry in terms of money received--a good indicator, I would think of who the Street prefers. Chart at the bottom.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6201221/

Here's the passage from James Gerber that I promised, from his book, International Economics, and from a chapter that deals with Balance of Payments.

"Theres is a general tendency in the media and the public to interpret a federal deficit as a sign of weakness and as harmful to the nation's welfare. Another interpretation is that the deficit enables more investment than would be possible otherwise, and since higher investment is correlated with higher living standards, the current account deficit migh be interpreted asbenefical . In addition, the capital inflows that are associated with deficits are an implicit vote of confidence by foreigners. During the deficit of much of the 1990s, foreign investors continued to pour in capital, enabling the United States to raise its level of investment and increase its productivity in spite of its declining savings rate. In this particular case, the current account deficit has been beneficial because, all else equal, it enabled more investment than was possible otherwise, given the saving rate."

Oh, here's an Econ. 101 lesson for you all (pay attention Bryan) from my hometown paper (Chicago Tribune) with a three U. of Chicago economists, arguably the world's premier economics experts/faculty, ranking of the Bush/Kerry economic related proposals. Do the math, tall the grades, and see who comes out on top.....

You have to register.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0410310276oct31,1,1443780.story

"FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT

George Bush

POSITION: Wants to erase the deficit through economic growth stimulated by tax cuts

SNYDER: The deficit is higher, but what's the overall balance sheet? If Iraq promotes Middle East peace, the $120 billion is worth it. If not, it's a waste. GRADE: B-.

GOOLSBEE: Hard to imagine a worse result. Tax cuts may have made sense before economy collapsed but not after. Spending is out of control. GRADE: F-.

KROSZNER: Bush inherited a skidding economy, and any president would have had to spend heavily on homeland security. The danger of deficits is overblown. GRADE: B+.

John Kerry

POSITION: Wants to raise revenue by repealing tax breaks for the wealthy and eliminating corporate welfare

SNYDER: Raising income taxes to pay down the deficit won't help. Given the overwhelming evidence of global warming, why not tax fossil fuels? GRADE: C+.

GOOLSBEE: Reinstating pay-as-you-go rules is crucial. But how will he make up for the budget damage done by the Bush administration? GRADE: B-.

KROSZNER: Enormous spending plans plus one limited rollback of the tax cuts? The math just doesn't add up. GRADE: D+."

I'm sure most liberals here will only be able to read Goolbee's response (notice how is grade is way out of wack with others)... [bash]

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

Basically that proves to me that Bush is more pro-big business (which we know he is), yet people still said Kerry would be more pro-big business. Look deeper than the simple figures.

What stocks do companies like Morgan Stanley deal with? I do not know in particular, but I would assume the larger companies would be Oil and energy companies. I'm sure Bryan might have some sources.

Wallie05 · Nov 4, 2004

Of course Bush is more pro-big business than Kerry, that's what I meant. New York I-banks are some of the biggest corporations around.....and they know who's best for them.

Two can play that game, EPJ3. I'm sorry I missed P.Diddy/MTV's memo:

VOTE DEMOCRAT OR DIE!!!!!

frolf · Nov 4, 2004

HEY HEY HEY

weren't we talking about bmw's?

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

Wallie05 said:

You think i give two shits at what some fast talking idiot says?

Sorry, maybe that stuff influences who you support, but i've always gone at the "think about it" approach.

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

Oh yea, at least the Kerry campaign didn't have to TWIST FACTS.

brahtw8 · Nov 4, 2004

While not focused on domestic policy, I thought I would share the following piece I wrote last night:

Terrorism is a tactic. It is not an ideology. It is not a country or a region of the world like the middle east. It is not a people.

Terrorism exists in many forms, some of them embodied by our own actions and the actions of our allies throughout history. One man's terrorist act is another man's act of revolution or self defense. We have never had the wisdom of God, let alone Solomon, but we act as if we occupy the moral high ground in the world. I wish that were true.

There are some occasions where we do not act like the greatest nation in the world.

Someone give me an answer to the following:

We are at war. The President is a wartime President.

Although we are at war for the soundbites and the headlines, the same Government argues it is not really at war when it comes to protecting the rights of the people it locks up, both foreign and domestic.

The people in Guantanamo Bay and INS detention are not all from Iraq or Afghanistan. Some are US Citizens. Many of them are evil people that may well deserve the harsh and brutal treatment they receive, if you believe in that kind of punishment. But some of them are being held under the shadiest of justification, that is not subject to review. These people were not allowed to know why they were being held, and they are not allowed to see the evidence.

They have been labeled enemy combatants under the Patriot Act and have no rights. Recently, the US Supreme Court gave them some rights back, but it remains to be seen if the US Army honors the Supreme Court's decision, given that this is not on US soil and the Army believes that its own law applies. Remind you of something?

This is not what people are dying for. Do you think the pictures they see of these prisoners on the internet have an impact on their desire to chop of the heads of Americans in Iraq and elsewhere? How can we ask them for mercy and restraint when we show them not a shred of human decency or dignity.

When are people going to wake up and understand that believing America is the greatest and can do no wrong is worthless if you don't uphold the values that make America great?

If the bill of rights means nothing to you, what are we sending our children to die for? Is revenge all we have left in this country?

We are better than this. If Bush truly wants to unite this country, he knows what he can do. He and the rest of the Republicans now have the power to show us all what it is they stand for. I pray that those who voted Republican are right. Nothing would make me happier.

Show me that this vote was not out of fear and the machinations of a right-wing empire. Show me they have a better plan for all americans. I want a better america, and that starts with jobs and education and health care.

If at the end of four years, we are still losing Americans in combat in the middle east, if we have no end in sight, if the deficit is out of control, if the country remains divided, if health care costs are through the roof, if many americans do not have health care or a living wage, if our public schools are in decline, if addiction remains a federal offense, if prison population and construction continues to rise, if the environment continues to decline, if solo drivers in 12 MPG SUVs still clog the highways, if we are still the bitch of foreign oil and the Saudis, etc., there will be no question as to who is to blame.

But if anyone thinks that I value the ability to look back in 2008 and say I told you so above a better america, you are incapable of having an open mind. I will be overjoyed to congratulate you all on your wisdom, foresight and courage. I honestly will.

On that note, can we all agree to try to make things better, even in the micro-level of this forum?

The election is by all accounts over, and now the real work has begun.

epj3 · Nov 4, 2004

EXCELLENT post brahtw8!!!

Section_8 · Nov 5, 2004

frolf said:

I think BMW's are OT here now. Oh well, I still think BMW's look great, and are much more interesting to discuss, than politics or religion (both of which lead to arguments - this isn't a board for both, even if this is a 'Lounge' forum). I let myself get too involved in the political posts here (I usually keep my politics in the #politics forum on Unet, or in my head...).

Oh yah, take a look at these:

That E36 M3 is LOW

This E46 (less than a week old) was dropped, jaw dropping red interior..

(I have VANCE in about 3 of my pics in this post already, Phil you always seem to slide into my camera lens!) [;)]

Bryan330i · Nov 5, 2004

"Willie05"

YOU IGNORE THE FINAL VOTE COMPLETELY????

I will give a bit on this because the 6 to 1 includes the entire Manhattan business sector.

You still only look for things to post but never give any thought of your own that contains any theory. But you did talk about your savings bonds in terms of national debt and your drop from 50% to 15% tax. This tells us a lot.

I sold $69,000 in Public Storage LLP V just last week from a cost of $11,000. I guess we just play different games.

Would you like to compare finances with me?

I never slam people but I hate fakes. You cannot discuss theory on any level and can only post other's work.

Indirectly, I know exactly who you are and what you are about. I guess just keep buying your savings bonds and playing your little game.

Bryan330i · Nov 5, 2004

"Willie05"

I am open to a complete, live debate on a financial, political, or similar forum. The only rule I would demand is that it must be real-time.

Wallie05 · Nov 5, 2004

Bryan330i said:

Post others work??; why debate when the experts (and markets) have spoken...? That's how gain you knowledge, professor, by looking at the work of others. Oh and the Tribune never posted a FINAL VOTE, you'll have to tally that for yourself. Assume A=5, F=1.

But if you wanna go, I'm game. Any time, any place. I'm gobal 24/7. I can spare a few minutes...you pick 'em.

T-notes and T-bills ARE NOT SAVING BONDS!!!!!. You don't hold on to them and cash them after X amount of years; you pay for the interest and then receive the principal at the end of the duration, genius. (Or better yet, just buy/sell--e.g "trade"--them and collect the diference on the bid/ask spread [hihi]

.)Your lack of comprehension, combined with your dismissive attitude (you never say anything that implies you know anything), indicates that you don't half of what you pretend to know.
It's clear to see who the poser is.....

PS. What color are my eyes???

dear john kerry

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