I go with one of two things.
1. Factory specifications. Who knows better than the factory? BMW recommends 7K miles for my car, then 7K miles it is.
2. Display on dash (as stated by Count Wadula). When all my oil change indicator lights are out on my dash, I change the oil.
Piece of cake.
3K miles is an OPEC (and every marketer in that industry) scam to get you to buy more oil. Every 3K miles does not hurt, though.